Baseball Prospectus, which studies every statistic known to man and likely knows what brand of underwear Joey Votto prefers, predicts the Reds will go 77-85 this year.

Yes, I’m a homer, but I’d flip that around to 85-77. The Reds went 78-84 last year, and I think if they stay healthy, they’re seven games better in 2010.

• Votto was fabulous last year, but he missed 31 games. If he plays 25 more this year, that’s an extra win.

• Paul Janish and Alex Gonzalez hit .210 last year with no power or steals. I’m not expecting Orlando Cabrera to be fantastic at shortstop, but he’s worth a win.

• Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Rosales hit .211 last year at third base. Scott Rolen is in his mid-30s, but he’s an extra win.

• No matter who Dusty Baker puts in center field, it won’t be Willy Taveras, who had 404 stunningly bad, inning-killing at-bats last year. That’s a win.

• A year ago today, Jay Bruce was unanimously considered a future superstar. Here’s guessing he gets more than 345 at-bats and hits better than .223. Add a win.

• The light appeared to go on for Homer Bailey at the end of last year. If the Reds get a whole year of “that” Homer, add two wins.

Those seven wins won’t get the Reds to the postseason, but after two winning seasons in the past 14 years, I’ll take what I can get.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2278 or jkelley@DaytonDailyNews.com.