Ten ESPN “experts” have picked a winner in the Reds-Phillies playoff series, and all 10 took the Phillies. Only one thought the Reds could force a fifth game.

It does look scary.

The Phillies are two-time defending National League champs and have the best record in the NL this year. They have ace pitchers in Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, and veteran playoff sluggers like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Sound at all like 1990?

That year, the Oakland A’s were two-time defending American League champs, had the best record in the AL, had star pitchers Dave Stewart and Bob Welch, plus sluggers Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire.

The Reds shocked baseball in that 1990 World Series, so can these inexperienced Reds pull a similar stunner? Here are a few reasons they might.

• Halladay and Oswalt started four games against the Reds this year, with Cincinnati going 3-1.

• Johnny Cueto dominated the Phillies in two starts, allowing one run in eight innings the first time, then two runs in seven.

• The Reds’ first two starters, Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo, will have some element of surprise, as the Phillies haven’t faced them at all in 2010.

• Cincinnati went 2-5 against Philadelphia this year but never got blown out. Four of the five losses came in extra innings, and the other was a 1-0 defeat.

• The Reds finished the season 91-71. Their last 91-71 record came in 1990 ... when they won it all.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2278 or jkelley@DaytonDailyNews.com.