The Cincinnati Reds will have big roster decisions to make when the 2011 season ends, including how to replace Francisco Cordero at closer.

Hopefully recent years will convince the team not to invest a big chunk of its payroll in a closer, as they have not gotten much bang for the buck from Cordero.

After tying for the major-league lead in blown saves last year, Cordero is 23rd of 27 in save percentage this year (among those with 15 or more opportunities). He’s making $12.1 million in the last year of his four-year, $46 million contract, making him the third-highest paid closer in the majors.

I’m not a Cordero fan, but this issue goes beyond his example.

There are 27 relievers who had at least 50 save opportunities from 2009-11, and seven of them are making more than $10 million this year. But if you look at save percentage over those three years, the performance of those seven highly paid stars was highly unpredictable.

Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are fourth- and fifth-best on the save percentage list, making them a pretty good investment. But Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan were right in the middle of those 27, ranking 12th and 13th. Cordero and Francisco Rodriguez rank 17th and 18th, while Brad Lidge is 26th.

In short, closer performance just doesn’t seem very predictable. So if you can’t really predict it, why spend on it? Pittsburgh’s and Cleveland’s closers have blown a combined one save this year (and are being paid $1.4 million and $2.2 million respectively).

So what if the Reds go with a cheap closer and he fails? Gee, he might rank near the bottom in save percentage ... like the Reds do now.

For $10 million less.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2278 or jkelley@coxohio.com.