“Time will tell, and I’ve always done things against the odds,” he said.
Jones has name recognition locally. And though the congressional district includes six counties, half of its population is in Butler County.
And the sheriff’s folksy demeanor and strong stance on immigration could play well in the rural areas that comprise much of the district.
“It’s a congressional district that’s pretty favorable to my philosophy,” he said.
“(Jones) is probably the most serious candidate in terms of name recognition … all the kinds of credentials one would expect of a candidate to come along pretty much since Boehner got elected,” said Ryan Barilleaux, chair of political science at Miami University.
“He is potentially the most formidable opponent Boehner would face since he got elected,” Barilleaux said.
Boehner’s very prominence as House minority leader makes him susceptible to some attacks, Barilleaux said, including charges that he is a Washington insider who has lost touch with his district and his leadership at a time when the party lost numerous seats.
Plus, Boehner’s principled stance against legislative appropriations — calling it “raiding the federal treasury” — opens him to criticism that he isn’t bringing anything home to his district, he said.
“That can potentially make an incumbent vulnerable … if a challenger can convince voters this district is not getting its piece of the pie,” Barilleaux said. “(That is) the kind of campaign that has often worked in the past in trying to unseat prominent leaders.”
It’s unclear at this point what kind of campaign Jones would run. He is a staunch conservative who has made a name on arguing for tougher immigration laws and giving local law enforcement the authority to enforce them.
“Immigration is just one small issue,” Jones said. “The spending in D.C. is going to be an issue and representing the working families (and) jobs in America, jobs staying in the U.S. and not leaving the U.S.”
It’s also unclear how much attention Boehner is giving the potential threat from Jones. In interviews last week, he said he’s more focused on fixing the economy and tempering federal spending. But he’s not ignoring his constituents, his office is quick to point out.
“Boehner’s first priority has always been serving as the congressional representative for the 8th Congressional District and fighting for the priorities of the people who elect him,” said Boehner Press Secretary Jessica Towhey. “That has been the case since day one, and serving as House Republican Leader simply gives him a bigger platform from which to do it.”
Barilleaux predicts Boehner’s camp will have a poll in the field within weeks to determine whether Jones is a viable contender.
Jones’ back-up plan?
Boehner being the face of opposition to the Democratic majority in Congress, Jones would be hard-pressed to run to his right, believes Douglas Shumavon, political science professor at Miami University.
“How can you out-conservative (Boehner)?” Shumavon asked.
“If Boehner has vulnerabilities, it would be from the moderate side, not from the conservative side,” Shumavon said. “Maybe I’m missing something from the sheriff, but I don’t see him on the moderate side.”
Boehner also scored points with conservatives for his stance against the federal stimulus package, famously throwing the 1,100-page bill on the House floor.
Jones, on the other hand, asked for millions of dollars in stimulus funding for the sheriff’s office, including $2.8 million for an environmentally friendly garage and millions more to buy furniture and fund deputy positions.
Jones defended the requests, saying “small government is supposed to take care of the military, law enforcement … fighting the bad guys, that’s government’s responsibility.”
Jones could, of course, not face Boehner in the primary. There’s still time to pull a petition, file as an independent and face Boehner in the general election.
Some theorize that Jones would fare well in a general election, where he could leverage support he enjoys from local labor unions.
Jones didn’t rule out this possibility, and that might be his best chance, said Shumavon.
“But I think he’s still dead in the water,” Shumavon said.
Barilleaux said this would be a bad move for Jones, as few independents get elected to the U.S. House.
Then there’s the chance that he might not run at all. GOP insiders theorize that Jones is merely staking a claim as the heir apparent should Boehner’s seat come open in the future, and he’ll back away from a run saying the timing isn’t right.
The only thing that’s clear is that no one, except perhaps the sheriff himself, can predict what his next move will be.
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Then turns arounds and says that He is opposed to Washington's Tax and Spend policies.
He is the Wolf in Sheeps clothing...much worse than just a regular Wolf; like Obama, Ted Kennedy, Pelosi, Feinstein, etc.
9:38 AM, 5/5/2009
I think you have made a great sherrif for butler county. We need you here to continue your work for Butler County. You would be a freshman in congress and freshman has a hard timne getting any thing done in Washington. Senority rules up there. I know we need new people up there, but most people doese not seem to think so. They keep sending the same ones back and look what a mess the country is in now.
10:08 AM, 5/4/2009
9:34 AM, 5/4/2009
11:22 PM, 5/3/2009
6:53 PM, 5/3/2009