His friends call him “Jonesy,” he is known for his folksy demeanor and tough stance on illegal immigration. He is Butler County’s sheriff, and may vie to become its next U.S. congressman in 2010. But that job is already held by a highly polished, West Chester Twp. businessman who happens to be one of the most powerful Republicans in the country. Should Rep. John Boehner be concerned? Does Richard Jones stand a chance?
Sheriff’s support unknown outside Butler County
One of Butler County Sheriff Richard K. Jones’ favorite things to point out is that he got more votes in Butler County last year than John Boehner, the U.S. House minority leader from West Chester Twp.
While this is technically true — Jones got 114,665 votes compared to 99,382 for Boehner — it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Boehner’s congressional district doesn’t include a large swath of rural southwest Butler County where Republicans enjoy broad support. But it does include all or part of Montgomery, Darke, Mercer, Miami and Preble counties.
And as the sheriff openly contemplates challenging one of the country’s most powerful Republicans in a primary next year, he’ll have to think about more than Butler County.
“I’ll be honest, I don’t know that I can pick him (Jones) out of a line-up,” said Del Kramer, GOP chairman in Mercer County, where 71 percent of residents voted Republican in the last election.
As for Boehner: “I’ve always felt that he was very well received up here,” Kramer said. “I think most people like him generally pretty well.”
Jim Nathanson, Republican member of the Montgomery County Board of Elections, said Jones has some name recognition in the Dayton area, “but I don’t think he has a great deal of respect.”
“The congressman is extremely well regarded and well liked in (the Dayton) area, and I think the community will rally around the congressman,” Nathanson said. “I don’t know why the sheriff is doing what he’s doing, but he won’t get traction in Dayton.”
Kramer did meet Jones when the sheriff attended a GOP fundraiser there. It was one of many such events he recently attended throughout Boehner’s district, sparking rumors that he was testing the waters for a run.
Jones still has little more than a toe in the water. He pulled petitions to run for the seat Tuesday, April 28, but said, “right now, it’s all in the experimental stages.”
“I’m not a candidate at this time,” he said. “I love being sheriff.”
“I need to find out the feasibility of me running a race and winning,” he said. “I don’t want to run a race just to be running a race … it’s a contact sport and I need to find out if I can raise the money it takes.”
Jones vs. the GOP
If Jones does file a petition, he’ll be stoking a fight with a political behemoth.
As a national figure, Boehner has access to deep-pocketed supporters across the country. He spent more than $1 million during the 2008 election — much of it donated to other campaigns — and had $314,563 on hand at the end of the last reporting period.
Jones is one of the most successful fund raisers in local politics, with $178,899 on hand after last year’s election.
But Federal Election Commission rules prevent Jones from spending this money on a federal race. He could give the money back to donors and ask them to donate to his congressional race, but that would be risky.
Jones also could end up taking on his own party.
“(Boehner) is a great American, he is a great member of Congress for the state of Ohio and an outstanding Republican leader, he has an outstanding record on fiscal discipline,” said Kevin DeWine, Ohio GOP chairman. “I’m confident that the people of the congressional district will re-elect him not only in the primary but also in the general election.”
DeWine said he wasn’t concerned about such a race hurting the party, but local Republicans are more concerned about an expensive contest that could bruise opinions and reputations.
“From our perspective, we certainly do not welcome a contested primary,” said Butler County GOP Chairman Tom Ellis. “It’s financially expensive and divisive within the party; it’s something we hope does not happen.”
“They’re both immensely popular officeholders and have represented constituents well in their respective positions,” he said.
Jones has rankled the GOP before, taking out a newspaper ad criticizing Arizona Sen. John McCain’s immigration views during his run for president and last month voicing his lack of support for state Sen. Jon Husted’s run for Secretary of State.
'David and Goliath’
Jones seemed unfazed about the prospect of running as an outsider.
“Just remember David and Goliath, and having the most money isn’t always the best thing,” he said. “People like to have a choice and they seem to be fed up with both parties at this point.
“Time will tell, and I’ve always done things against the odds,” he said.
Jones has name recognition locally. And though the congressional district includes six counties, half of its population is in Butler County.
And the sheriff’s folksy demeanor and strong stance on immigration could play well in the rural areas that comprise much of the district.
“It’s a congressional district that’s pretty favorable to my philosophy,” he said.
“(Jones) is probably the most serious candidate in terms of name recognition … all the kinds of credentials one would expect of a candidate to come along pretty much since Boehner got elected,” said Ryan Barilleaux, chair of political science at Miami University.
“He is potentially the most formidable opponent Boehner would face since he got elected,” Barilleaux said.
Boehner’s very prominence as House minority leader makes him susceptible to some attacks, Barilleaux said, including charges that he is a Washington insider who has lost touch with his district and his leadership at a time when the party lost numerous seats.
Plus, Boehner’s principled stance against legislative appropriations — calling it “raiding the federal treasury” — opens him to criticism that he isn’t bringing anything home to his district, he said.
“That can potentially make an incumbent vulnerable … if a challenger can convince voters this district is not getting its piece of the pie,” Barilleaux said. “(That is) the kind of campaign that has often worked in the past in trying to unseat prominent leaders.”
It’s unclear at this point what kind of campaign Jones would run. He is a staunch conservative who has made a name on arguing for tougher immigration laws and giving local law enforcement the authority to enforce them.
“Immigration is just one small issue,” Jones said. “The spending in D.C. is going to be an issue and representing the working families (and) jobs in America, jobs staying in the U.S. and not leaving the U.S.”
It’s also unclear how much attention Boehner is giving the potential threat from Jones. In interviews last week, he said he’s more focused on fixing the economy and tempering federal spending. But he’s not ignoring his constituents, his office is quick to point out.
“Boehner’s first priority has always been serving as the congressional representative for the 8th Congressional District and fighting for the priorities of the people who elect him,” said Boehner Press Secretary Jessica Towhey. “That has been the case since day one, and serving as House Republican Leader simply gives him a bigger platform from which to do it.”
Barilleaux predicts Boehner’s camp will have a poll in the field within weeks to determine whether Jones is a viable contender.
Jones’ back-up plan?
Boehner being the face of opposition to the Democratic majority in Congress, Jones would be hard-pressed to run to his right, believes Douglas Shumavon, political science professor at Miami University.
“How can you out-conservative (Boehner)?” Shumavon asked.
“If Boehner has vulnerabilities, it would be from the moderate side, not from the conservative side,” Shumavon said. “Maybe I’m missing something from the sheriff, but I don’t see him on the moderate side.”
Boehner also scored points with conservatives for his stance against the federal stimulus package, famously throwing the 1,100-page bill on the House floor.
Jones, on the other hand, asked for millions of dollars in stimulus funding for the sheriff’s office, including $2.8 million for an environmentally friendly garage and millions more to buy furniture and fund deputy positions.
Jones defended the requests, saying “small government is supposed to take care of the military, law enforcement … fighting the bad guys, that’s government’s responsibility.”
Jones could, of course, not face Boehner in the primary. There’s still time to pull a petition, file as an independent and face Boehner in the general election.
Some theorize that Jones would fare well in a general election, where he could leverage support he enjoys from local labor unions.
Jones didn’t rule out this possibility, and that might be his best chance, said Shumavon.
“But I think he’s still dead in the water,” Shumavon said.
Barilleaux said this would be a bad move for Jones, as few independents get elected to the U.S. House.
Then there’s the chance that he might not run at all. GOP insiders theorize that Jones is merely staking a claim as the heir apparent should Boehner’s seat come open in the future, and he’ll back away from a run saying the timing isn’t right.
The only thing that’s clear is that no one, except perhaps the sheriff himself, can predict what his next move will be.
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