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Updated: 12:38 a.m. Wednesday, May 25, 2011 | Posted: 12:37 a.m. Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Severe weather of spring ’11 not result of climate change

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Severe weather of spring ’11 not result of climate change photo
An approximately 80-year-old maple tree fell on the home of Marilyn Hamblin of 905 Brough Ave., Hamilton, during Monday night’s storm. No one was hurt.

By Kareem Elgazzar

Staff Writer

No link has been determined between the recent severe weather that has swept through many Midwestern and southern states, and global climate change, according to two meteorological experts.

At least not yet.

Research is ongoing, but National Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Dietsch said tornado statistical data taken in 2010 matches that of yearly averages.

Nationally, 1,296 tornadoes were reported in 2010, just below the yearly average of 1,300.

“We’ve had an unusually strong jet stream in the area, and it’s sat over the Midwest,” Dietsch said. “We’ve had disturbances within the flow of the jet stream, which have sparked off thunderstorms in April and now into May.”

Typically, the jet stream rests farther south toward Alabama during the early weeks of April and shifts north into the summers months, Dietsch said. This year, it’s stalled over the Midwest, causing storms to pound the region on a seemingly weekly basis.

In April, 875 tornadoes were reported nationally, smashing the record of 267 set in 1974. But Dietsch said certain factors have to be taken into account when recording such meteorological data.

“We have a lot better technology; we’re more populated, so there’s a lot more people reporting; and it’s a lot easier to report a tornado now than it was in 1974,” he said. “If 1974 were to happen today, it would be a lot closer.”

Deke Arndt, the chief climactic monitor for the national Climate Data Center said it’s too early to say if recent severe weather is a result of climate change.

In the absence of more scientific data, however, La Nina phenomenon, which occurred this past winter, yields increased chances to see more severe weather, Arndt said.

April’s weather, however, has been a head-scratcher for Arndt and his team based on three factors: the high number of tornadoes reported similar to the outbreak of 1974; dry conditions in Texas and Oklahoma, which was compared to the Dust Bowl in the 1930s; and massive flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys similar to those in 1927.

“Within one month?” Arndt said. “Those are three really substantial comparisons — it’s like comparing basketball players to Michael Jordan.

“Well ... we had three Michael Jordans.”


Today’s forecast

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9 a.m. with a high temperature near 83 degrees. Possible severe weather into the evening. Rainfall amounts may total three-quarters of an inch by day’s end.

Damaging, straight-line winds and large hail are possible along with an isolated tornado. There also is a potential for flooding.

Source: National Weather Service in Wilmington

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