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AIDS may threaten Russian economy

Infection rate in work force raises alarms

Togliatti, Russia — This industrial metropolis on the banks of the Volga River, once known as the Soviet "steel city," is home to Russia's largest car-producing plant, where workers enjoy high wages and a better standard of living than most other parts of post-Communist Russia.

But the area also has one of the highest HIV infection rates in the country, and doctors and managers of the AvtoVAZ plant are worried that their current and future work force is dying of AIDS.

DMITRY LOVETSKY/Associated Press (enlarge photo) Children play in Baby House 10, which treats HIV-positive children, in St. Petersburg, Russia. Russia's AIDS epidemic is now the largest in Europe, according to the latest UNAIDS figures.

The automaker currently employs 120,000 people at its factory, pumping out hundreds of thousands of the popular Lada sedans each year. Officially, 300 of its workers are registered as HIV-positive. Unofficially, that figure is five times higher and rapidly increasing through intravenous drug use and sexual contact, health experts say.

If nothing is done to slow the spread of the virus in Togliatti, AvtoVAZ will be short of as many as 15,000 workers in 10 years as HIV/AIDS patients succumb to the disease, said Dr. Vladimir Shatokhin, the head doctor at AvtoVAZ.

"The statistics alone, even the official ones, make it obvious that we can no longer turn our backs to the problem," Shatokhin said.

Russia's AIDS epidemic is now the largest in Europe, according to the latest United Nations' AIDS agency figures. The government has registered just over 318,000 HIV patients in the country, but estimates by the Russian Federal AIDS Center, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and other global organizations place that figure between 450,000 and 1.4 million.

About 70 percent of those infected are within Russia's working age population of 15-39. Experts warn that the disease's impact is threatening to wipe out a significant portion of Russia's work force, and harm the country's economy if more attention isn't given to treatment and preventive measures.

Russia is not the only country facing the potential economic impact of the AIDS epidemic. UNAIDS estimates that there are 40.3 million people living with HIV in the world, with 4.9 million new HIV infections in 2005 alone. The United Nations has designated Dec. 1 as World AIDS Day, each year seeking a renewed commitment from the international community to fight the disease.

China's top health official this week warned that the country risks social instability and a possible economic downturn if its number of HIV-infected people exceeds 1.5 million.

China officially has 840,000 people infected with HIV and 80,000 with AIDS.

UNAIDS has said the true figure is likely higher, and that up to 10 million could be infected by 2010 without more aggressive prevention.

The impact on Africa, which has the highest rates of HIV and AIDS patients, is staggering at 25.8 million infected men, women and children. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa will record a projected 3.2 million new HIV infections this year.

Russia's crisis is compounded by its already declining population. Alcoholism, smoking-related illnesses, heart disease and emigration reduce the numbers every day.

Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Siberian city of Irkutsk also have skyrocketing HIV infection rates. But it is here in Togliatti, some 700 miles southeast of Moscow, that the AIDS epidemic is taking its toll on the future of Russia's economy, experts said.

Doctors at AvtoVAZ have started an AIDS awareness program for the company's autoworkers. More than half of the city's 750,000 residents either work for or are related to workers at AvtoVAZ.

With workers earning a higher salary than most Russians, Togliatti became a natural target for drug dealers and prostitution — spreading HIV through the sharing of needles and unprotected sex.

Changing the population's perceptions of HIV/AIDS has not been easy.

"The risk perception of the general population is very poor," said Dr. Alexander Muravets, director of the Samara office of Population Services International, which works with the local government to create education programs on HIV/AIDS. The program receives funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development. "Many still believe, sadly, that if they are not gay, using drugs or a sex worker, then they aren't at risk," Muravets said.

Staff writer Craig Simons in Beijing (csimons@ajc.com) contributed to this article.