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Evaluating Jones' future won't be easy

ATLANTA — He's widely regarded as the top defensive center fielder in a generation and among the best of all time. He's hit more home runs before age 30 than all but seven players. And he wants to stay with the Atlanta Braves.

If that were all there was to it, re-signing Andruw Jones would seem a no-brainer.

But mix in other factors, like an aging body, pending free agency, agent Scott Boras and a projected $80 million team payroll, and the situation gets complicated.

That's why Jones, who's under contract through the 2007 season, is potentially the team's biggest domino that could fall via trade this offseason, setting in motion other moves as the Braves attempt to regroup after a disappointing season that ended their run of 14 consecutive division titles.

"Scott's going to come out and ask for what my value is, see what the market is, and we'll go from there," Jones said. "We'll see if [the Braves] want to accept it, and then it's up to me if I want to go lower or higher. When the season's over, that's when we will talk.

"There's a lot of teams out there that have a lot of money. L.A. [Dodgers], Anaheim, the Mets. ... A lot of people are willing to spend money for good players. But I'm not thinking about that right now. Hopefully we can work something out so I can stay with the Braves."

The Braves don't have to do anything at all with Jones this winter since he's under contract for next season. But the team won't sit and wait until next summer to formulate a strategy regarding the 29-year-old.

They will decide in coming months — perhaps sooner — whether they can afford to re-sign Jones, whose salary could climb above $15 million annually and account for one-fifth of the projected team payroll.

"With every player who becomes a free agent or a potential free agent," Braves general manager John Schuerholz said, "you try to make your best judgment as to how long a guy can continue to perform at his optimum level and how long you can count on that productivity.

"He plays hard. He's a sensational player. He does a great job for us."

Would the Braves trade a future Hall of Fame candidate before he turns 30? Or spurn possible offers from Boston and others this winter, and start next season with Jones, with or without a contract extension?

If they don't sign him to an extension and they're in a pennant race next summer, it would be nearly impossible to justify trading Jones before the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July. Jones could end up signing with another team after next season, and the Braves would get only compensatory draft picks.

It's an unusual situation with a unique player.

He hit his 40th home run of the season Wednesday, after leading the majors with a career-high 51 in 2005 when he was the MVP runner-up. He's the first Braves player since Hank Aaron to have back-to-back 40-homer seasons, and the only one to do it since the team moved to Atlanta.

He has 341 homers and needs only two more before his birthday April 23 to pass Aaron and Mel Ott on the most homers before age 30 list. He also had 124 RBIs before Wednesday, after leading the National League with 128 in 2005.

At the end of this season, he will have averaged more than 35 homers for a nine-year span while winning a Gold Glove every season.

"He's in a class with some of the greatest of all time," Braves pitcher John Smoltz said. "He shows such brilliance and does it with such ease, and when he's no longer in center field, you're going to see a remarkable difference. It's not going to be easy to replace him. It'd be like replacing Mariano Rivera [as Yankees closer]."

When Jones signed his current contract with the Braves, he and his father went directly to Schuerholz, bypassing Boras and negotiating a six-year, $75 million contract that was considered below-market price. Jones said Boras called him after that deal was announced, to make sure Jones hadn't fired him.

Boras still got his commission, and this time around, Jones said he told Boras he can handle negotiations.

Jones smiled and said, "But who knows, I might end up doing it myself again."

Not likely. Jones said Boras is already assembling a thick book that puts Jones' accomplishments into historical perspective, in anticipation of negotiations.

Jones attained 10-and-5 trade-veto powers in August when he became a 10-year player with five years of service with his current team. A father of two, Jones lives in suburban Atlanta with his Atlanta-native wife and family. He wants his son to grown up in Atlanta and not have to move from city to city.

Still, he indicated he wouldn't veto a trade to a desirable team if the Braves approached him. "Because if they want to trade you, they don't want you," he said.

Baseball Prospectus recently calculated that Jones' value would drop to about $9 or $10 million by 2008-09, then decline steadily. The ice packs strapped to his knees and back after games are signs of a diving, wall-crashing player who reached the majors at age 19 and has played more games than anyone since 1997.

Jones insists he'd like to play 10 more seasons and remain a center fielder his entire career, like Willie Mays. "But if I have to DH or play first base someday, we'll see," he said.

If he plays that long, or anywhere near that long, his statistics could be mind-numbing, and the Braves would be reminded frequently of what they traded away.

Mets left fielder Cliff Floyd shook his head when asked about the Braves possibly trading Jones. He said the difference would affect Atlanta's pitchers as much as it would put a hole in the lineup.

"If you lose him you pretty much ... if your pitching staff is OK, it won't be OK after that," Floyd said. "If your pitching staff is good, they won't be as good without him.

"Having him, you're basically allowing a [pitcher] to throw a ball middle-away, and if a guy hits it good, it's still an out unless it goes over the fence. Because he's catching it.

"And he hits 40 home runs a year. So not only does he give you runs, he's taking runs away."

Two knocks on Jones are his streaky hitting and his declining batting average, from .303 in 2000, to .277 in 2003, to the past three seasons of .261, .263 and .264. Chipper Jones said signing Andruw should be a top priority. Schuerholz said that rebuilding the pitching staff tops the Braves' priority list.

Trading Jones could help fortify the pitching staff, since the Braves would ask for at least one or two pitchers in return.

When the Red Sox called before the July 31 trade deadline, Schuerholz asked for 22-year-old left-hander Jon Lester, outfielder Coco Crisp and 22-year-old reliever Craig Hansen.

The Red Sox balked, but they could be interested again this winter.

As may other teams.

David O'Brien writes for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.