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Two storms by June 10? Welcome to hurricane season

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — We're in for a loooooooooong hurricane season.

The season's just 10 days old, and already Floridians have watched two menacing storms tracing cone-shaped tracks across their television screens. The latest, Tropical Storm Arlene, is expected to bring us days of wet, squally weather on its way up the Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Panhandle.

The National Weather Service placed already-waterlogged South Florida under a flood watch Thursday as far north as Palm Beach County, warning that rain bands associated with Arlene could dump as much as 5 inches on some spots by late tonight. Forecasters also warned of rip currents, choppy seas, possible tornadoes and even a small chance of tropical-storm-force winds.

And the season's next named storm, Bret, could form within the coming week from a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean near Haiti, weather service meteorologist Jim Lushine said.

Bret — if it forms — will probably brush the eastern Bahamas before sweeping out to sea, sparing Florida, Lushine said. But every two to four days, yet another tropical wave starts flowing toward us from the eastern Atlantic, like chocolates on a conveyor belt in an "I Love Lucy" rerun.

Arlene emerged just three weeks after a Pacific hurricane, Adrian, slammed into Central America on a path that could have taken it near the Florida Keys. Adrian disintegrated over Honduras.

Floridians, still surrounded by blue-tarped roofs from last year's four hurricanes, can only wonder what more this season will bring before it ends Nov. 30.

Just consider this: As bad as last season was, it didn't get its first named storm until Aug. 1.

But experts said this season's rousing start shouldn't surprise anyone. June produces a named storm roughly once every other year, according to National Hurricane Center figures.

"The hurricane season starts on June 1 for a reason," hurricane center specialist Richard Knabb said.

The good news, Knabb said: June and July storms tend to form near the western Caribbean, closer to Florida, but usually don't pack the same punch as the August-through-October killers, which often form in the Atlantic.

He said this month's frequent tropical waves also are typical: A hurricane season may produce as many as 70 waves, areas of low air pressure that often bring cloudy skies and rain. The vast majority will never produce a tropical storm, "but we watch each one," Knabb said.

And an active June doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will turn Florida back into Plywood Central, Lushine said. He cited the busy 2003 season, which turned out to be a snooze for Florida even though the first tropical storm appeared in April.

Lushine has said he expects South Florida to fare better this year than in 2004 because of a weakening in the Bermuda High, the Atlantic high-pressure system that steered all those hurricanes our way. One sign of the weakening is the abundant rain that fell last month. (June rain doesn't count, he said.)

But a New York forecasting company, Weather 2000, says Arlene's early appearance backs up its predictions that the season would start early, produce lots of storms and threaten the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

"We're eight weeks ahead of the pace of last year," said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for the company, which advises clients in the energy, farming and insurance industries. He expects the season to stay busy.

"I would be surprised if we had to wait until mid-August to see the 'B' storm," he added. "But you can never tell with the tropics."

Weather 2000 also has cautioned against making too much fuss over Arlene, saying the season's first tropical storm often generates "excessive attention and hype."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also has predicted a hectic season, but without specifying when and where the storms will strike. Colorado State University hurricane expert William Gray offers a similar forecast, plus a double-the-usual chance that tropical storm winds will strike somewhere from the Keys to the Martin-St. Lucie County line this year.

Arlene's early arrival brings one bit of good news: If you take nature's hint, you still have two days to enjoy the state's sales tax holiday for hurricane supplies.

"Now is the time to go to the store and stock up," Knabb said. "The lines are relatively short."

Robert P. King writes for The Palm Beach Post. E-mail: bob_king@pbpost.com