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Ellen Belcher is the Dayton Daily News opinion pages editor. She writes about state government, education, the environment, higher education and all things Dayton.
Martin Gottlieb is an editorial writer and columnist for the Dayton Daily News opinion pages. He focuses on the political process itself and does such national issues as war, the economy, taxes and Social Security, as well as a hodge-podge of local and state issues.Home > Blogs > A Matter of Opinion > Archives > 2010 > March > 17
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Martin Gottlieb: Are ‘the American people’ really against health care plan?
It is by now official — whether true or not — that “the American people” oppose the pending health care plan.
Republican House leader John Boehner, of West Chester, says it all the time. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, of Kentucky, says it all the time. Likewise for conservative voices in the media. Everybody says it.
Not only do they say it: they start there. It seems to be the most important point to them. Ask almost any public opponent of the plan for a brief statement and you get references to polls.
These warriors see polls as a great weapon for scaring moderate Democrats in Congress whose votes are up for grabs.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent out a poll this week that focused on particular congressional districts in Ohio. The version that came to this newspaper said “51 percent … in the 1st District oppose the … plan … while only 35 percent support it.” The 1st — in the Cincinnati area — is represented by freshman Democrat Steve Driehaus, who beat a Republican incumbent in 2008 and is in for a tough race this year. He’s uncommitted.
One striking thing about the polls is how often that 51-percent figure comes up, or something even lower. A Web site called RealClearPolitics gathers many polls on the subject, from the likes of USA Today/Gallup, Newsweek and Associated Press. It reports that an average of polls by eight organizations between mid-February and the first week in March showed 48.9 percent opposing and 41.3 percent supporting health care reform.
The biggest gap between support and opposition was 12 percent; the lowest, 2 percent. The biggest majority for opposition was 53 percent. If political warriors want to try to scare the politicians by pointing out that more people oppose than support the proposal, fine.
But “the American people”?
President Barack Obama’s pollster, Joel Benenson, referred to another collection of polls (at Pollster.com) in a Washington Post column Saturday, March 13. He said eight out of 12 showed a gap in the range of three points.
He also noted that follow-up questions in two polls show a lot of opponents upset because the plan doesn’t go far enough, which is clearly not what Boehner and Co. mean when they talk about opposition.
Benenson refers to a CNN poll in which 10 percent of respondents opposed the bill saying it was “not liberal enough.” And he noted an Ipsos poll in which a third of opponents say it doesn’t go “far enough.”
He and others note that polls show majority support for the major parts of the plan.
Clearly, though, the Democrats have failed to sell their overall plan. Theories abound as to why: it’s big government and big spending; the White House has been inept and/or lax in making the case; people are skeptical of 2,500 pages of change in a system that already works for many.
The correct theory: Republican and independent voters are both very influenced by the fact that Republican politicians are opposed in lockstep. Many independents distrust anything that doesn’t have more bipartisanship.
In a lifetime of watching, pondering, using and dismissing polls, I’ve come to the general conclusion that polls on issues aren’t useful where the issue is complicated; people just simply do not focus on complications.
Health care might be an exception. Many people report feeling strongly. That has to be respected. The issue has been around long enough that a great many people do have a good feel for it, even if they can’t give you a recitation on the complications.
Those who support the plan are less likely to say they feel strongly than those who support it. One suspects that has something to do with a certain leeriness about everything these days, a reluctance to let one’s hopes get too high.
So what should the impact of the polls be?
If, indeed, the problem in the polls is the lack of Republican congressional buy-in, a good discussion can be had about whose fault that is.
But if the Democrats let Republicans stop them now, (A) they’re giving veto power to the party they defeated for control of Congress and the presidency, and (B) they’re probably not doing themselves any good in the coming election. But that’s another column.
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