By Tom Q

September 7, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this

I’m certainly not going to knock Lichtman, who deserves all credit for devising this system, and sticking to it. (To see the alternative approach, just tune into any network coverage, or click on the Chicken Little blogs) And I’ll certainly agree with his point that no election has turned on charisma. You could make the case that whatever kiss-from-god makes certain candidates charismatic also sees to it that they run in favorable years. (Cf. Reagan’s luck in not securing the thankless ‘76 nod, and JFK’s in avoiding half-blame for the ‘56 blowout) But I have to repeat, I think Lichtman is playing it safe by only ascribing charisma to those safely enshrined in the past. It’s telling that he only came up with the system AFTER the 1980 contest had been decided. I guarantee, in October of that year, when Carter, despite gotesque approval ratings, still led Reagan, no one was throwing the charisma tag around for St. Ron. I think what Raoul said on the previous thread is correct: charisma is something ratified in the voting booth. Reagan’s charisma was suddenly perceived when he turned a seeming nail-biter into an electoral landslide. If Obama does something similar in November — well possible, given the circumstances — I think a like assessment might be made.

By Martin Gottlieb

September 9, 2008 6:05 PM | Link to this

Very astute. I sense a certain defensiveness about Lichtman in discussing the key.

By Daytonology

September 10, 2008 5:58 PM | Link to this

I blogged on the 13 keys and turned the charisma key for Obama, mainly based on his speeches. After seeing him in action a bit more, and actually reading the book, I see I was wrong and Obama doesn’t really rise to that level yet——- Aslo, McCain isn’t of sufficient stature to be a national hero as I thought, as Lichtman is talking about a great wartime leader or comabt leader (he uses Grant and Eisenhower; perhaps we could also say Colin Powell or Patton or McArthur). Seems these keys are a wash.

By Tom Q

September 11, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this

Okay, to move beyond the charisma question, a few other thoughts: 1) Whether you think the number of Keys lost this cycle is 7, 8 (including recession) or 9 (including charisma), it’s an easy call. Yet out there in journalism/blogosphere land, there’s widespread “McCain surging/Obama doomed!” feeling. Some of it is promoted by must-stay-tuned TV execs; some of it is Eeyore Democrats who’ve been too recently disappointed. But mostly it’s people who believe in Polls Uber Alles — the folks who thought Dukakis was “way ahead” in ‘88, or that Carter was going to pull it out in 1980. That McCain has come even in polls in the immediate aftermath of his convention is no great shakes even if you believe in polls — Carter was high single-digits ahead of Reagan in the same time-frame. I do look forward to the November post-mortems, when all these people tell us what the “key moment” was, when Obama “reversed the momentum” and “took back the race”. 2) Actually, there’s one person out there who seems to understand the reality pretty well, and that’s Obama himself. It seems everyone is screaming he “must” Attack-attack-attack, go after Palin, scream at McCain — yet he resists all the hysteria and keeps on keeping on. I think he sees as I (and I presume you) do: the McCain campaign is doing the sleazy defense lawyer thing — throwing up every bit of smoke and mirrors they can muster to cloud the facts, and dazzling the court reporters with his style. But Obama knows he’s the DA who can walk into final arguments, show conclusively incriminating video-tape, and get a conviction from the jury in two hours. 3) Again, however many Keys fall this year: Can you ever remember an election where so many Keys were at least under consideration to fall? Usually 3 or 4 are utterly off-limits in even the worst circumstances (as in Carter’s case: incumbency, long-term economy, scandal, foreign policy success). This second Bush term has been so horrific, almost everything is at least worth glancing at — Libby, Gonzales and Katrina for scandal, the muddled GOP primary for contest, even (potentially) Bob Barr drawing off a few third-party points. None of these Keys fall, I agree — but they’re not quite slam-dunks, either. Truly, social unrest is the only undebatably positive Key they can claim.